In 2010, China's corn market showed a super bull market characteristic. At the beginning of the year, due to severe weather such as drought in southwest China, corn prices soared. To ensure market supply and stabilize grain market prices, relevant state agencies have gradually introduced macroeconomic policies to control the market since April. The price of corn in Dalian dropped rapidly after hitting a spring high in mid-May. The new round of gains began with the acquisition of summer grain in June, and the company’s rush to collect revenue has become the driving force behind the high food prices. In addition to China Grain Storage, China Grain, China Grain, and other state-owned grain companies, the main players involved in the summer grain purchase in 2010 were various grain trading companies, grain reserve companies, processing companies, and foreign-funded enterprises. The capacity expansion competition for large grain processing companies has pushed up food prices. Southern companies’ buying of corn has also continued to push corn prices.
In order to stabilize the grain market, the government began to regulate the price of corn. In late June, the Ministry of Finance announced that on July 15th, it will abolish export tax rebates including alcohol and corn starch. From August, the State Reserve began to auction the state reserves and temporary reserves of corn to stabilize prices, but corn auction volume and transaction prices continued to climb. At the same time, domestic imports of corn have started to increase, but this has also led to the expected increase in CBOT corn prices, leading to a sharp rise in corn import costs.
Now that the corn market has reached a critical point in time, the new corn is about to be listed. The market has great differences for the market outlook. However, in the short term, the seasonal pressure of the new crop corn can not be evaded, and the medium and long-term needs to see the support of demand.
First, the new maize crop in the Northern Hemisphere will be on the market. Seasonal pressure will appear. 1. U.S. corn grows well. The good rate of growth of U.S. corn crops since June 2010 has maintained a good status. Until now, it has remained at a high of 70, only secondarily The level of 2004 is very close to 2009. Since the growth in the early period is obviously better than the same period of last year, if there is no weather problem in the later period, the yield should be higher than last year. The August report of the USDA estimated that the corn list in 2009 was 164.7 bushels per acre, compared with 165 bushels per acre in 2010, close to 2009.
Recently, some research institutions have also released production forecast reports. According to the latest report released by the Lynn Group, the US corn and soybean production this year may be lower than the forecast of the US Department of Agriculture in early August. The Lynn Group expects US corn production this year to be 13.016 billion bushels, which is lower than the 13.635 billion bushels forecast by the US Department of Agriculture in early August. FCStone expects US corn production to reach 13.195 billion bushels this year, with an average yield of 162.9 bushels per acre.
On September 3rd, analyst firm Informa Economics lowered its forecast for US corn production in 2010 and raised soybean production forecast. Traders said that the company estimates that the final corn output announced by the US Department of Agriculture is estimated at 13 billion bushels, with an average yield of 158.5 bushels per acre.
In addition, Informa's research shows that the area of ​​corn planted by farmers is about 1 million acres more than the USDA’s current estimate. However, Informa estimated that the US Department of Agriculture’s estimate of US corn production on September 10 would be 13.349 billion bushels, with an average yield of 164.8 bushels per acre.
Recent weather forecasts indicate that rainfall in the central and western regions of the Midwest is expected to slow down the initial harvest; there is a small amount of showers in the US Delta's growing area, slowing the progress of harvesting, but on the whole, the maturity and harvest of the crops satisfaction. The spot price of corn in the Midwest of the United States has remained stable due to the impending harvest.
2. China's new season maize is growing well, and the harvest can be increased due to the abnormal weather in recent years. This year's corn production is also arduous. The northeast producing areas first encountered cold weather, and the spring planting was delayed by about 15 days. In late July, the northeastern production areas again experienced serious lyricism. The low temperature and rainy weather was not conducive to pollination of corn and caused market concern. However, the impact of a locust plague on a line is not as severe as drought drought, and after the strengthening of field management, the impact on corn production is limited. On the whole, due to the relatively short growth period of corn this year and the prolonged rainy weather in the middle, the slight accumulated temperature will be a major factor in testing the growth of corn in Northeast China in the later period, which may lead to the corn cobs and corn kernels being less than normal. However, the final result will not be determined until the grain is mature in mid-September. At present, corn in Huanghuai production areas of North China has already entered the grain filling stage. Generally speaking, the rainfall in the middle and late August has eased the drought conditions that have occurred in the early stages. The maize growth is good. If the light is sufficient and the grouting is full later, the quality of corn in North China should be guaranteed.
In terms of planting area, due to the strong performance of corn prices in 2009/2010, the corn-soybean price ratio relationship in the northeastern producing areas is positive and the corn planting area is increasing. According to the forecast data of the National Grain and Oil Information Center in August, China's corn planting area was 30.56 million hectares this year, an increase of 100,000 hectares over the previous year, an increase of 0.3%; China's corn production this year is expected to reach 168 million tons, an increase of 4.03 million over the previous year. Ton, an increase of 2.5%. According to the latest forecast data of the US Department of Agriculture, China's corn planting area for 2010/2011 was 30.8 million hectares, and the output was 166 million tons, which was an increase of 11 million tons from the 2009/2010 output.
From April to the end of July, China had purchased nearly 1 million tons of U.S. corn, the highest purchase since 1995, and for the first time in four years, it imported U.S. corn, triggering concerns about the tight supply of domestic corn. However, the National Development and Reform Commission said earlier that due to the low proportion of China's corn imports in the domestic market, the impact on the domestic market is limited.
China's State Grain Administration also earlier said that the country’s current corn stocks are sufficient. There is no shortage of corn supply and demand in the country this year; the country will continue to put reserve corn in order to achieve market stability.
In September, the cold air has just appeared once it has appeared. Affected by this, in the next three days, temperatures in most northern regions will gradually drop 4-8°C, and local regions will cool down to 10-12°C; in the morning of the 7th, Heilongjiang and other places will experience initial frost. This will have an impact on some regions, but it will have little impact on the main maize production areas.
II. Analysis of corn demand 1. The slowdown in the growth of corn food and industrial consumption With the gradual recovery of the global economy, the industrial demand for corn has also steadily increased. According to the report of the US Department of Agriculture, the United States may use FSI in 10/11. It increased to 154 million tons, a growth rate of 2.89%, and the growth rate was 17.96% last year. This is the first time since 2005, the growth rate has been reduced to single digits. On the one hand, the US ethanol production continues to expand, the base rapidly increases, and rapid growth continues. Difficulty. On the other hand, the economy is still in a stage of continuous recovery and consolidation this year. The speed of economic growth is limited. There are also expectations of debt crisis and economic policy withdrawal. The space for rising crude oil prices is limited, and ethanol production is also limited. Affected by the substantial slowdown in U.S. FSI usage, global FSI usage growth has also slowed significantly. The global FSI usage in 10/11 may increase to 336 million tons, a growth rate of 2.75%, compared with 8.85% last year.
Relatively speaking, 10/11 China corn FSI consumption growth is relatively stable, according to the US Department of Agriculture report, 10/11 year, China corn FSI consumption of 49 million tons, an increase of 4.25% over the previous year about 2 million tons, growth rate This is basically the same as in 09/10. As China's economy recovers first, and sugar prices remain high, the demand for corn starch also increases significantly. As can be seen from the figure below, China's corn starch has continued to rise since 2009, and this year broke the high point formed in December 2007 and reached a historical high. In this process, the benefits of corn deep-processing companies have also been significantly improved.
Although this year's corn deep-processing enterprises have a good situation, the potential risks can not be ignored. First, the national policy has not changed. The scale of corn for deep-processing corn during the “11th Five-Year Plan†period must not exceed 26% of the total corn consumption of 41.34 million tons; Second, the state’s control over inflation expectations may affect the start-up of corn deep-processing enterprises. According to the latest regulations, the export tax rebate for some products will be cancelled on July 15. It includes corn starch, modified ethanol at any concentration, and any concentration. The reformed alcohol and many other corn deep-processing products may affect the integration of corn deep-processing companies in the second half of the year. The global FSI continued to maintain its growth trend in 10/11, but the growth rate has slowed down significantly; China's corn The annual operating rate of deep-processing enterprises will be significantly higher than that of last year, but the situation in the second half of the year may not be optimistic. The policy risks are relatively large and may grow steadily throughout the year.
2. Modest growth in China's feed demand Demand for corn in China continues to grow at a rigid rate. In particular, the growth of feed corn continues to show a rigid trend. According to statistics, China produced 4,889,1370 and 27.41 million tons of pig, chicken and poultry eggs respectively in 2009. According to the data from the Animal Husbandry Department of the Ministry of Agriculture, in the first half of 2010, the output of Chinese pigs, cattle, and sheep and poultry was 37.13 million tons, an increase of 3.5% year-on-year, of which pork accounted for 245.5 million tons, which was 3.6% year-on-year, and the chicken production increased steadily. The market is forecast to increase by about 3%; in the first half of 2010, the output of poultry eggs in China was 12.8 million tons, which was the same as that of the same period of last year. It is expected that the output in the second half of the year will be higher than last year and will also increase steadily.
Since June, the prices of animal products in China have continued to rise. Among them, the performance of pork and eggs has been particularly prominent. The price of chicken has risen by leaps and bounds. Affected by the rebound in prices, the profits of the breeding industry have improved markedly, and the pig-to-grain ratio has returned to more than 6, chicken and eggs. The ratio is also stable, better than the 2009 level. It is expected that in the second half of 2010, the egg production will be higher than the first half of the year, and the growth rate will also increase; the chicken production will also increase steadily, the growth rate will be slightly flat compared with the first half of the year; pork production will also increase steadily, due to the second half of last year The large population of pigs made the pork production larger in the first half of this year. Considering that the current pig population in China is also outstanding, pork production is expected to continue to grow in the second half of the year, but the growth rate is smaller than the first half. On the whole, the aquaculture industry will steadily increase throughout the year. It is conservatively estimated that pork production will reach 50 million tons, chicken 14 million tons and poultry eggs 27.5 million tons. The demand for corn may increase by about 2.72 million tons year-on-year.
In mid-August, domestic feed sales began to increase significantly. It is understood that the sales of feed in local areas have risen by about 30% in the past two weeks, which in turn will form a support for corn. With the approaching of the traditional Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holiday, farmers have to increase the amount of feed to meet the needs of the slaughter before the holiday, which is the main reason for the dramatic increase in feed sales. Of course, with the slaughter of large numbers of live pigs and broilers in the September-October period, domestic feed sales may show a certain degree of structural differentiation, and support for feed ingredients may decrease slightly.
Third, the future trend analysis Overall, it is expected that the domestic corn market will be dominated by shocks in the short term, but at the same time it is expected that the downside of domestic corn may also be limited. Mainly due to the improvement of the domestic aquaculture industry, the demand for corn in the future is promising. In addition, the number of corn carryovers in the previous year is not expected to be too high, and the increase in prices has also increased farmers' reluctance to sell goods, and will inevitably affect the supply of future corn. At the same time, there is still uncertainty about the final output of autumn grain. In recent years, extreme weather has frequently occurred. Under the condition that sowing has been delayed, once the early frost disaster occurs, the price of corn will rebound retaliatoryly.
After the recent corn spike, it was suppressed by bad policies such as new corn and the market pressure. In the coming period, it is expected to fluctuate and adjust to bear the bad. After the bad consumption is finished, corn is supported by relatively strong demand, and before the new corn is listed It is expected to oscillate upwards. Operational hedgers can try blunders to prevent seasonal declines; downstream hedgers need to wait for the seasonal low to build more. Long-term thinking remains bullish. In the later period, it is still necessary to pay attention to the policy, weather conditions and demand dynamics in the production areas to adjust the strategies in due course.
In order to stabilize the grain market, the government began to regulate the price of corn. In late June, the Ministry of Finance announced that on July 15th, it will abolish export tax rebates including alcohol and corn starch. From August, the State Reserve began to auction the state reserves and temporary reserves of corn to stabilize prices, but corn auction volume and transaction prices continued to climb. At the same time, domestic imports of corn have started to increase, but this has also led to the expected increase in CBOT corn prices, leading to a sharp rise in corn import costs.
Now that the corn market has reached a critical point in time, the new corn is about to be listed. The market has great differences for the market outlook. However, in the short term, the seasonal pressure of the new crop corn can not be evaded, and the medium and long-term needs to see the support of demand.
First, the new maize crop in the Northern Hemisphere will be on the market. Seasonal pressure will appear. 1. U.S. corn grows well. The good rate of growth of U.S. corn crops since June 2010 has maintained a good status. Until now, it has remained at a high of 70, only secondarily The level of 2004 is very close to 2009. Since the growth in the early period is obviously better than the same period of last year, if there is no weather problem in the later period, the yield should be higher than last year. The August report of the USDA estimated that the corn list in 2009 was 164.7 bushels per acre, compared with 165 bushels per acre in 2010, close to 2009.
Recently, some research institutions have also released production forecast reports. According to the latest report released by the Lynn Group, the US corn and soybean production this year may be lower than the forecast of the US Department of Agriculture in early August. The Lynn Group expects US corn production this year to be 13.016 billion bushels, which is lower than the 13.635 billion bushels forecast by the US Department of Agriculture in early August. FCStone expects US corn production to reach 13.195 billion bushels this year, with an average yield of 162.9 bushels per acre.
On September 3rd, analyst firm Informa Economics lowered its forecast for US corn production in 2010 and raised soybean production forecast. Traders said that the company estimates that the final corn output announced by the US Department of Agriculture is estimated at 13 billion bushels, with an average yield of 158.5 bushels per acre.
In addition, Informa's research shows that the area of ​​corn planted by farmers is about 1 million acres more than the USDA’s current estimate. However, Informa estimated that the US Department of Agriculture’s estimate of US corn production on September 10 would be 13.349 billion bushels, with an average yield of 164.8 bushels per acre.
Recent weather forecasts indicate that rainfall in the central and western regions of the Midwest is expected to slow down the initial harvest; there is a small amount of showers in the US Delta's growing area, slowing the progress of harvesting, but on the whole, the maturity and harvest of the crops satisfaction. The spot price of corn in the Midwest of the United States has remained stable due to the impending harvest.
2. China's new season maize is growing well, and the harvest can be increased due to the abnormal weather in recent years. This year's corn production is also arduous. The northeast producing areas first encountered cold weather, and the spring planting was delayed by about 15 days. In late July, the northeastern production areas again experienced serious lyricism. The low temperature and rainy weather was not conducive to pollination of corn and caused market concern. However, the impact of a locust plague on a line is not as severe as drought drought, and after the strengthening of field management, the impact on corn production is limited. On the whole, due to the relatively short growth period of corn this year and the prolonged rainy weather in the middle, the slight accumulated temperature will be a major factor in testing the growth of corn in Northeast China in the later period, which may lead to the corn cobs and corn kernels being less than normal. However, the final result will not be determined until the grain is mature in mid-September. At present, corn in Huanghuai production areas of North China has already entered the grain filling stage. Generally speaking, the rainfall in the middle and late August has eased the drought conditions that have occurred in the early stages. The maize growth is good. If the light is sufficient and the grouting is full later, the quality of corn in North China should be guaranteed.
In terms of planting area, due to the strong performance of corn prices in 2009/2010, the corn-soybean price ratio relationship in the northeastern producing areas is positive and the corn planting area is increasing. According to the forecast data of the National Grain and Oil Information Center in August, China's corn planting area was 30.56 million hectares this year, an increase of 100,000 hectares over the previous year, an increase of 0.3%; China's corn production this year is expected to reach 168 million tons, an increase of 4.03 million over the previous year. Ton, an increase of 2.5%. According to the latest forecast data of the US Department of Agriculture, China's corn planting area for 2010/2011 was 30.8 million hectares, and the output was 166 million tons, which was an increase of 11 million tons from the 2009/2010 output.
From April to the end of July, China had purchased nearly 1 million tons of U.S. corn, the highest purchase since 1995, and for the first time in four years, it imported U.S. corn, triggering concerns about the tight supply of domestic corn. However, the National Development and Reform Commission said earlier that due to the low proportion of China's corn imports in the domestic market, the impact on the domestic market is limited.
China's State Grain Administration also earlier said that the country’s current corn stocks are sufficient. There is no shortage of corn supply and demand in the country this year; the country will continue to put reserve corn in order to achieve market stability.
In September, the cold air has just appeared once it has appeared. Affected by this, in the next three days, temperatures in most northern regions will gradually drop 4-8°C, and local regions will cool down to 10-12°C; in the morning of the 7th, Heilongjiang and other places will experience initial frost. This will have an impact on some regions, but it will have little impact on the main maize production areas.
II. Analysis of corn demand 1. The slowdown in the growth of corn food and industrial consumption With the gradual recovery of the global economy, the industrial demand for corn has also steadily increased. According to the report of the US Department of Agriculture, the United States may use FSI in 10/11. It increased to 154 million tons, a growth rate of 2.89%, and the growth rate was 17.96% last year. This is the first time since 2005, the growth rate has been reduced to single digits. On the one hand, the US ethanol production continues to expand, the base rapidly increases, and rapid growth continues. Difficulty. On the other hand, the economy is still in a stage of continuous recovery and consolidation this year. The speed of economic growth is limited. There are also expectations of debt crisis and economic policy withdrawal. The space for rising crude oil prices is limited, and ethanol production is also limited. Affected by the substantial slowdown in U.S. FSI usage, global FSI usage growth has also slowed significantly. The global FSI usage in 10/11 may increase to 336 million tons, a growth rate of 2.75%, compared with 8.85% last year.
Relatively speaking, 10/11 China corn FSI consumption growth is relatively stable, according to the US Department of Agriculture report, 10/11 year, China corn FSI consumption of 49 million tons, an increase of 4.25% over the previous year about 2 million tons, growth rate This is basically the same as in 09/10. As China's economy recovers first, and sugar prices remain high, the demand for corn starch also increases significantly. As can be seen from the figure below, China's corn starch has continued to rise since 2009, and this year broke the high point formed in December 2007 and reached a historical high. In this process, the benefits of corn deep-processing companies have also been significantly improved.
Although this year's corn deep-processing enterprises have a good situation, the potential risks can not be ignored. First, the national policy has not changed. The scale of corn for deep-processing corn during the “11th Five-Year Plan†period must not exceed 26% of the total corn consumption of 41.34 million tons; Second, the state’s control over inflation expectations may affect the start-up of corn deep-processing enterprises. According to the latest regulations, the export tax rebate for some products will be cancelled on July 15. It includes corn starch, modified ethanol at any concentration, and any concentration. The reformed alcohol and many other corn deep-processing products may affect the integration of corn deep-processing companies in the second half of the year. The global FSI continued to maintain its growth trend in 10/11, but the growth rate has slowed down significantly; China's corn The annual operating rate of deep-processing enterprises will be significantly higher than that of last year, but the situation in the second half of the year may not be optimistic. The policy risks are relatively large and may grow steadily throughout the year.
2. Modest growth in China's feed demand Demand for corn in China continues to grow at a rigid rate. In particular, the growth of feed corn continues to show a rigid trend. According to statistics, China produced 4,889,1370 and 27.41 million tons of pig, chicken and poultry eggs respectively in 2009. According to the data from the Animal Husbandry Department of the Ministry of Agriculture, in the first half of 2010, the output of Chinese pigs, cattle, and sheep and poultry was 37.13 million tons, an increase of 3.5% year-on-year, of which pork accounted for 245.5 million tons, which was 3.6% year-on-year, and the chicken production increased steadily. The market is forecast to increase by about 3%; in the first half of 2010, the output of poultry eggs in China was 12.8 million tons, which was the same as that of the same period of last year. It is expected that the output in the second half of the year will be higher than last year and will also increase steadily.
Since June, the prices of animal products in China have continued to rise. Among them, the performance of pork and eggs has been particularly prominent. The price of chicken has risen by leaps and bounds. Affected by the rebound in prices, the profits of the breeding industry have improved markedly, and the pig-to-grain ratio has returned to more than 6, chicken and eggs. The ratio is also stable, better than the 2009 level. It is expected that in the second half of 2010, the egg production will be higher than the first half of the year, and the growth rate will also increase; the chicken production will also increase steadily, the growth rate will be slightly flat compared with the first half of the year; pork production will also increase steadily, due to the second half of last year The large population of pigs made the pork production larger in the first half of this year. Considering that the current pig population in China is also outstanding, pork production is expected to continue to grow in the second half of the year, but the growth rate is smaller than the first half. On the whole, the aquaculture industry will steadily increase throughout the year. It is conservatively estimated that pork production will reach 50 million tons, chicken 14 million tons and poultry eggs 27.5 million tons. The demand for corn may increase by about 2.72 million tons year-on-year.
In mid-August, domestic feed sales began to increase significantly. It is understood that the sales of feed in local areas have risen by about 30% in the past two weeks, which in turn will form a support for corn. With the approaching of the traditional Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holiday, farmers have to increase the amount of feed to meet the needs of the slaughter before the holiday, which is the main reason for the dramatic increase in feed sales. Of course, with the slaughter of large numbers of live pigs and broilers in the September-October period, domestic feed sales may show a certain degree of structural differentiation, and support for feed ingredients may decrease slightly.
Third, the future trend analysis Overall, it is expected that the domestic corn market will be dominated by shocks in the short term, but at the same time it is expected that the downside of domestic corn may also be limited. Mainly due to the improvement of the domestic aquaculture industry, the demand for corn in the future is promising. In addition, the number of corn carryovers in the previous year is not expected to be too high, and the increase in prices has also increased farmers' reluctance to sell goods, and will inevitably affect the supply of future corn. At the same time, there is still uncertainty about the final output of autumn grain. In recent years, extreme weather has frequently occurred. Under the condition that sowing has been delayed, once the early frost disaster occurs, the price of corn will rebound retaliatoryly.
After the recent corn spike, it was suppressed by bad policies such as new corn and the market pressure. In the coming period, it is expected to fluctuate and adjust to bear the bad. After the bad consumption is finished, corn is supported by relatively strong demand, and before the new corn is listed It is expected to oscillate upwards. Operational hedgers can try blunders to prevent seasonal declines; downstream hedgers need to wait for the seasonal low to build more. Long-term thinking remains bullish. In the later period, it is still necessary to pay attention to the policy, weather conditions and demand dynamics in the production areas to adjust the strategies in due course.
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