Hexun News On November 30th, Guojin Securities' investment strategy for 2012 was held in Shanghai. Hexun conducted a live graphic broadcast on the site. Guo Zhen Securities agricultural researcher Chen Zhenzhi said that in 2012, he would be optimistic about feed for a long period of six months and recommend new products. Hope, investment opportunities for feed stocks such as Haida Group (002311, stocks), Dabeiong (002385, shares) and Tangren (002567, stocks). From the point of view of increasing consumption and stabilizing prices, it is recommended to use the Zizi Island, the Oriental Ocean (002086, stocks), and the good leader (600467, stocks). With favorable policies and industry integration, Longping Hi-tech (000998, stocks), Denghai Seed Industry (002041, stocks), Dunhuang Seed Industry (600354, stocks) and Bengbu Silver Gaoke (300087, stocks) are recommended. At the same time, it is also recommended to increase the price of West King Food (000639, stock it) and the amount of premiums Shengnong Development (002299, stock it), as well as the growth of the Huilong shares (002 556, stock it).
The following is a textual record:
Chen Zhenzhi: Good afternoon, distinguished guests. I am very pleased to be here to share with you our views and opinions on the investment ideas for the agricultural sector next year. Our title is to shrink the front and tap the structural opportunities in the agricultural sector.
We believe that the main line of investment in the agricultural sector next year will be from entering the defensive price into the volume. The first point is based on historical returns of the domestic A-shares and the US stocks' agricultural indices. Excess returns are basically in the stage of high inflation. The second domestic agricultural product price has experienced a 2-3 year increase since 2009. In the past one or two years, most agricultural product prices have narrowed significantly. The price of individual species has already reached the top of history. Therefore, looking for the trajectory of agricultural product prices and inflation, we judge that the entire investment strategy should gradually transition from offensive to defensive, and gradually transfer from the price to the quantity. Because from the whole plate, the varieties with the rising food prices will be reduced.
First of all, let's look at livestock farming and feed blocks. In the poultry breeding sector, we saw that prices of all major livestock products have declined since September, especially pork prices have dropped from 19 yuan to 16 yuan. Pork is the most important meat product in China. The current domestic consumption amounted to 50 million tons per year. How do we judge the annual price of pork? We have two points. From the point of view of reserves and trade imports, his volume has limited impact on marginal contribution to supply. Eventually, pig prices will be implemented in terms of stocks. The price of pigs will stop rising and rising during the Spring Festival, but it is difficult to return to the high point. We think the top of the pork price has appeared. We propose to pay attention to Shengnong Development, which is a growth stock in the breeding stocks.
Future pressure on the feed sector will slowly be released. Feed blocks can maintain a more favorable mood. The second is from the relationship between aquaculture and feed, we look at the previous round of the cycle, the entire feed plate lags behind the aquaculture company 2-3 quarters. Third, the previous round of economic cycle tells us that the top of the feed plate index lags behind the aquaculture plate index. Fourth, history tells us that live pigs are generally ahead of the feed index for three months.
From the perspective of mariculture. On the one hand, we are optimistic about scallops, and sales on Zhangzi Island can be expected to expire. The second one is sea cucumber. The supply of sea cucumber industry is insufficient, and the price is expected to rise in the long term. The economy of the next year will not be as bad as it was in 2008. The price of sea cucumber will remain stable next year.
From the perspective of supply and demand, we believe that next year will continue this year's trend. The concept of seed stocks next year will be policy and integration. In terms of policy, although the threshold is raised, what will happen to your implementation? In the end, it can really make some relatively poor companies withdraw. According to statistics from related departments, the number of domestic seeds has shrunk from more than 8,700 two years ago to more than 7,500 this year. And in this year's seven or eight thousand companies, there are only more than 100 basketball players that are more competitive. The integration process of seed industry will be accelerated in the future, which will be confirmed to some extent. It is the gross profit margin of the seed sector that has been oscillating higher since 05. There will still be structural opportunities next year. Historically, structural opportunities will be more likely in the fourth quarter. One is heavy volume and the other is policy encouragement.
In the agricultural sector, we recommend that investors pay attention to this relatively new breed of capital markets. The current situation of the whole industry of agricultural capital enterprises is relatively decentralized. With policy support, the industry will become bigger and stronger through mergers and acquisitions. Huilong is an agricultural-funded company listed this year. After listing, we have the advantages of capital markets. We are relatively optimistic about his growth potential. We recommend that investors pay attention to such a variety.
Finally, we recommend to pay attention to Xiwang Food in the use of oils and fats, and we believe that prices will increase steadily next year. Tomato sauce, sugar industry, we think that these two plates do not have a chance.
Finally, we summarize our 2012 investment strategy. We are optimistic about feed for the first half of 2012, and we recommend investment opportunities for feed stocks such as New Hope, Haida Group, Dabei Agriculture, and Tangren God. From the perspective of increasing consumption and stabilizing prices, it is recommended that Zhangzi Island, Oriental Ocean, good heads, etc. With the support of policy support and industry consolidation, Longping Hi-Tech, Denghai Seed Industry, Dunhuang Seed Industry and Bengbu Silver Tech are recommended. At the same time, we also recommend Xiwang Food, which is increasing in price, and Shengnong Development at a premium, and Huilong, a very growth company.
thank you all.
The following is a textual record:
Chen Zhenzhi: Good afternoon, distinguished guests. I am very pleased to be here to share with you our views and opinions on the investment ideas for the agricultural sector next year. Our title is to shrink the front and tap the structural opportunities in the agricultural sector.
We believe that the main line of investment in the agricultural sector next year will be from entering the defensive price into the volume. The first point is based on historical returns of the domestic A-shares and the US stocks' agricultural indices. Excess returns are basically in the stage of high inflation. The second domestic agricultural product price has experienced a 2-3 year increase since 2009. In the past one or two years, most agricultural product prices have narrowed significantly. The price of individual species has already reached the top of history. Therefore, looking for the trajectory of agricultural product prices and inflation, we judge that the entire investment strategy should gradually transition from offensive to defensive, and gradually transfer from the price to the quantity. Because from the whole plate, the varieties with the rising food prices will be reduced.
First of all, let's look at livestock farming and feed blocks. In the poultry breeding sector, we saw that prices of all major livestock products have declined since September, especially pork prices have dropped from 19 yuan to 16 yuan. Pork is the most important meat product in China. The current domestic consumption amounted to 50 million tons per year. How do we judge the annual price of pork? We have two points. From the point of view of reserves and trade imports, his volume has limited impact on marginal contribution to supply. Eventually, pig prices will be implemented in terms of stocks. The price of pigs will stop rising and rising during the Spring Festival, but it is difficult to return to the high point. We think the top of the pork price has appeared. We propose to pay attention to Shengnong Development, which is a growth stock in the breeding stocks.
Future pressure on the feed sector will slowly be released. Feed blocks can maintain a more favorable mood. The second is from the relationship between aquaculture and feed, we look at the previous round of the cycle, the entire feed plate lags behind the aquaculture company 2-3 quarters. Third, the previous round of economic cycle tells us that the top of the feed plate index lags behind the aquaculture plate index. Fourth, history tells us that live pigs are generally ahead of the feed index for three months.
From the perspective of mariculture. On the one hand, we are optimistic about scallops, and sales on Zhangzi Island can be expected to expire. The second one is sea cucumber. The supply of sea cucumber industry is insufficient, and the price is expected to rise in the long term. The economy of the next year will not be as bad as it was in 2008. The price of sea cucumber will remain stable next year.
From the perspective of supply and demand, we believe that next year will continue this year's trend. The concept of seed stocks next year will be policy and integration. In terms of policy, although the threshold is raised, what will happen to your implementation? In the end, it can really make some relatively poor companies withdraw. According to statistics from related departments, the number of domestic seeds has shrunk from more than 8,700 two years ago to more than 7,500 this year. And in this year's seven or eight thousand companies, there are only more than 100 basketball players that are more competitive. The integration process of seed industry will be accelerated in the future, which will be confirmed to some extent. It is the gross profit margin of the seed sector that has been oscillating higher since 05. There will still be structural opportunities next year. Historically, structural opportunities will be more likely in the fourth quarter. One is heavy volume and the other is policy encouragement.
In the agricultural sector, we recommend that investors pay attention to this relatively new breed of capital markets. The current situation of the whole industry of agricultural capital enterprises is relatively decentralized. With policy support, the industry will become bigger and stronger through mergers and acquisitions. Huilong is an agricultural-funded company listed this year. After listing, we have the advantages of capital markets. We are relatively optimistic about his growth potential. We recommend that investors pay attention to such a variety.
Finally, we recommend to pay attention to Xiwang Food in the use of oils and fats, and we believe that prices will increase steadily next year. Tomato sauce, sugar industry, we think that these two plates do not have a chance.
Finally, we summarize our 2012 investment strategy. We are optimistic about feed for the first half of 2012, and we recommend investment opportunities for feed stocks such as New Hope, Haida Group, Dabei Agriculture, and Tangren God. From the perspective of increasing consumption and stabilizing prices, it is recommended that Zhangzi Island, Oriental Ocean, good heads, etc. With the support of policy support and industry consolidation, Longping Hi-Tech, Denghai Seed Industry, Dunhuang Seed Industry and Bengbu Silver Tech are recommended. At the same time, we also recommend Xiwang Food, which is increasing in price, and Shengnong Development at a premium, and Huilong, a very growth company.
thank you all.
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