At the 2011 Zhengzhou Agricultural Products (Grain) Futures Forum held yesterday, Wang Jun, deputy director of the consulting and research department of the China International Economic Exchange Center, stated that the international economic situation is complicated and turbulent, and the turmoil in the international financial market has intensified. Market uncertainty and short-term emergencies have also occurred. It will affect the commodity market. In the coming period, the price fluctuations of commodity futures will increase, and shocks will be inevitable.
Wang Jun predicts that in the next two months, before the prospect of the debt crisis in Europe and the United States is uncertain, international commodity prices will enter a deep adjustment period, which may cause a temporary panic in the country due to the deterioration of the crisis in a certain country, which again triggers a drop in commodity prices.
However, in the medium and long term, the general trend of global economic recovery has not changed. The commodity market is still one of the most valuable markets for capital chasing. Wang Jun believes that in some countries, various "rescue measures" have been introduced one after another. The European and American countries will eventually find a solution to the debt crisis during the year. When the European and American economies will improve, the large amount of hunters will inflow, plus the economies of emerging countries such as China. The fact that the fundamentals are still in good condition will push commodity prices back up again, and it will be a relatively strong rebound.
He said that in the second half of the year global grain supply and demand are still in a tight balance, and the era of food surplus is over. In the future, global grain prices will still have room for growth. There are several main reasons:
First, rising food production costs will continue to lead to tight supply of agricultural products. As the population ageing trend in the major economies accelerates and labor costs rise, the prices of agricultural materials such as land, fertilizers, agricultural machinery, irrigation, and refrigerated transportation have risen, and the cost of production of agricultural products has increased.
The second is the increase of global extreme climate and the reduction of arable land. According to scientific research, the global climate has ushered in an inflection point and the global extreme climate has increased. Agricultural products have a certain production cycle and are vulnerable to extreme weather. At the same time, as the process of industrialization and urbanization in emerging market economies gradually advances, the area under grain cultivation will continue to decrease, posing a threat to food production.
The third is the tight global food stocks. The August Global Supply and Demand Report for Agricultural Products released by the U.S. Department of Agriculture predicts that the global cereal ending stocks for 2011-2012 will be 434 million tons, a decrease of 3.45% year-on-year. Wheat and corn ending stocks fell by 1.5% and 6.83%, respectively. Ending stocks of rice increased by 1.09%. Cereal stocks consumption ratio fell to 19.03%, slightly higher than the internationally recognized alert level of 17% to 18%, of which corn stock consumption ratio It fell to 13.18%, the lowest level in nearly 16 years.
Fourth, the demand for food will continue to increase. With the increase of the global population, the overall demand for food is still greater. The increase in global energy constraints has led to an increase in international oil prices, which has led to an increase in demand for biofuels. As people's living standards increase, the demand for animal protein-rich foods such as meat, eggs and milk increases, and feed grain increases.
Wang Jun predicts that in the next two months, before the prospect of the debt crisis in Europe and the United States is uncertain, international commodity prices will enter a deep adjustment period, which may cause a temporary panic in the country due to the deterioration of the crisis in a certain country, which again triggers a drop in commodity prices.
However, in the medium and long term, the general trend of global economic recovery has not changed. The commodity market is still one of the most valuable markets for capital chasing. Wang Jun believes that in some countries, various "rescue measures" have been introduced one after another. The European and American countries will eventually find a solution to the debt crisis during the year. When the European and American economies will improve, the large amount of hunters will inflow, plus the economies of emerging countries such as China. The fact that the fundamentals are still in good condition will push commodity prices back up again, and it will be a relatively strong rebound.
He said that in the second half of the year global grain supply and demand are still in a tight balance, and the era of food surplus is over. In the future, global grain prices will still have room for growth. There are several main reasons:
First, rising food production costs will continue to lead to tight supply of agricultural products. As the population ageing trend in the major economies accelerates and labor costs rise, the prices of agricultural materials such as land, fertilizers, agricultural machinery, irrigation, and refrigerated transportation have risen, and the cost of production of agricultural products has increased.
The second is the increase of global extreme climate and the reduction of arable land. According to scientific research, the global climate has ushered in an inflection point and the global extreme climate has increased. Agricultural products have a certain production cycle and are vulnerable to extreme weather. At the same time, as the process of industrialization and urbanization in emerging market economies gradually advances, the area under grain cultivation will continue to decrease, posing a threat to food production.
The third is the tight global food stocks. The August Global Supply and Demand Report for Agricultural Products released by the U.S. Department of Agriculture predicts that the global cereal ending stocks for 2011-2012 will be 434 million tons, a decrease of 3.45% year-on-year. Wheat and corn ending stocks fell by 1.5% and 6.83%, respectively. Ending stocks of rice increased by 1.09%. Cereal stocks consumption ratio fell to 19.03%, slightly higher than the internationally recognized alert level of 17% to 18%, of which corn stock consumption ratio It fell to 13.18%, the lowest level in nearly 16 years.
Fourth, the demand for food will continue to increase. With the increase of the global population, the overall demand for food is still greater. The increase in global energy constraints has led to an increase in international oil prices, which has led to an increase in demand for biofuels. As people's living standards increase, the demand for animal protein-rich foods such as meat, eggs and milk increases, and feed grain increases.
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