Food output may be reduced after "seven consecutive increase"

Qin Fu, the director of the Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, warned at the opening ceremony of the third China Rural Economy Forum that China’s grain production has been increasing for seven consecutive years, but it is clearly recoverable, vulnerable, and alternative. After the "seven consecutive increase," the possibility of a long period of production cuts has increased, and it is necessary to make great efforts to continue to increase various inputs and support for food production, among which the need to rely on science and technology to increase the development of yields.

Qin Fu, after summarizing China's experience of “seven consecutive increases” in grain, and in light of the quantitative measurement of grain yield increase, put forward seven policy recommendations for ensuring sustained and stable grain yield: First, it is highly vigilant and avoids the possibility of continuous increase in grain production. Periodicity. The second is to firmly hold onto the two "red lines." About 40% of the "seven-increase" grain of China's grain comes from the contribution of sown area. It is necessary to implement the strictest arable land protection system and firmly hold the 1.8 billion acres of arable land and 1.6 billion acres of grain sown. ". The third is to continue to stabilize and improve support policies for strong farmers and farmers. Strengthen the systematicness and pertinence of policies, in particular, improve the agricultural subsidy system, expand the scope, raise standards, and improve methods. The fourth is the efficient use of technological advancement to increase production. The contribution of various inputs in the "seven consecutive increase" is about 26.5%. In the future, with high levels of food input, limited arable land, and continuous transfer of labor, it is necessary to insist on relying on science and technology to improve the development of the yield. Fifth, give full play to the outstanding contribution of the main producing areas. We will strengthen the construction of major grain-producing areas, carry out large-scale production of high-yield products, and give full play to the outstanding role of large-scale grain-producing provinces, grain-producing cities, and grain-producing counties, and concretely implement the plans to increase grain production capacity by 100 billion kilograms. Sixth, efforts are made to mobilize the enthusiasm of farmers for grain production. When the government formulates food policies, it should correctly recognize and treat the effects of rising prices of agricultural products and rising food prices affecting inflation. The transmission of prices of agricultural production materials is the main factor. It is necessary to reasonably increase the purchase price of grain and protect the enthusiasm of farmers for growing grain. Seventh, vigorously strengthen the agricultural infrastructure. China's agricultural infrastructure construction is seriously lagging behind. From 2004 to 2009, due to the increase in irrigated area and increased resilience, it only contributed 11.6 percentage points to grain growth. The government should regard the construction of agricultural infrastructure as a key and priority investment area, and greatly improve the ability of agriculture to fight disasters.