Experts believe that the rate hike will be 1-2 times during the year, and domestic inflation expectations will continue until next year. The National Bureau of Statistics released July macroeconomic data. The consumer price index (CPI) rose by 6.5% year-on-year, hitting a 37-month high. In addition, the CPI ring data also rose, up 0.5% from June. Food prices are still the “main force†for CPI to continue to rise. Food prices in July rose by 14.8% year-on-year, driven by record highs in pork prices.
Although the July CPI again set a new high of 37 months, many experts and scholars still believe that although the CPI will likely fall back in the second half of the year, it is too early to say that it will peak in July, and there is still a possibility of new heights. Whether or not to raise interest rates is quite variable.
Whether or not the July CPI has peaked in July is not necessarily the highest CPI in the year, and the CPI will peak before October. The specific time is still uncertain. â€
——The political commissar of Industrial Bank Lu Zheng, a former economist, had previously predicted that the CPI would peak in July and that the 6.5% year-on-year increase has reached its peak. There are disagreements among expert bodies.
According to Lian Ping, chief economist of the Bank of Communications, the third quarter of this year will become the high point of the annual CPI, but monetary policy will not tighten and will remain stable.
Lian Ping previously stated that the CPI will peak in July and begin to fall from August to September. It will fall to about 4% in December. Today, he still insists on this judgment.
Southwest Securities chief economist Wang Jianhui also said that although July CPI is still higher than market expectations, but the international energy market prices continue to decline, pork prices have gradually stabilized, "August CPI is no new high possibility."
However, Lu political commissar of the Industrial Bank chief economist did not agree with this view. In an interview with the media, he said that in July CPI data there were eight major year-on-year increases. "This situation is rare."
According to the Lu political commissar, the main factor contributing to this situation is the increase in labor costs. "The July CPI may not be the highest point of CPI during the year, and the CPI will peak before October. There is still uncertainty at the specific time."
In the second half of the year, there is a difference in not raising interest rates. Given the stock market crash and the subsequent impact of the US debt crisis, the central bank will not take interest rate increases. â€
- Are economist Xie Guozhong's monetary policy tight or loose in the second half of the year? On the afternoon of the afternoon, a number of experts published their views on microblogging or interviews with the media, focusing on issues such as the trend of monetary policy in the second half of the year, whether to raise interest rates, and whether to raise the interest rate.
Lu political commissar guessed that interest rates will be raised 1-2 times during the year. Yesterday, he wrote on Weibo that the 6.5% year-on-year increase in CPI was exactly the same as predicted in his July 25 report, but the food, non-food, and overall levels were all significantly higher than the normal values ​​for the same period of history, indicating that the inflationary pressure is still high. Maintain 1-2 interest rate increase expectations during the year. However, he also mentioned that no action should be taken before the international financial market is calmed down.
Equally in favor of raising interest rates, Wang Tao, UBS chief China economist. In her view, due to the persistence of imported inflationary pressures, persistently high prices of international commodity prices, and long-term rising labour costs, the domestic inflation expectation remains strong, and China’s high inflation may continue until mid-March next year. "I do not rule out the possibility of raising interest rates by 25 basis points in September."
The economist Xie Guozhong did not approve of this view. “The downgrade of CPI and US credit is not the real reason for the recent stock market crash, but the global economy is facing a high risk of a double bottom. Given the stock market crash and the subsequent impact of the U.S. debt crisis, the impact is unknown. The central bank will not take interest rate increases."
A consensus:
The second half of the year will be the turning point of the CPI. Although scholars are divided about whether or not they reach the top in July, they will be the turning point of the CPI in the second half of the year but reached a consensus.
According to Ba Shusong, deputy director of the Financial Research Institute of the Development Research Center of the State Council, given the drop in global oil prices, weak growth in major economies, and the downward trend in pork prices since the end of July, CPI is expected to show a steady decline, and it is expected to fall back to 4.5 in the fourth quarter. About %, and will continue at this level for some time.
Although the July CPI again set a new high of 37 months, many experts and scholars still believe that although the CPI will likely fall back in the second half of the year, it is too early to say that it will peak in July, and there is still a possibility of new heights. Whether or not to raise interest rates is quite variable.
Whether or not the July CPI has peaked in July is not necessarily the highest CPI in the year, and the CPI will peak before October. The specific time is still uncertain. â€
——The political commissar of Industrial Bank Lu Zheng, a former economist, had previously predicted that the CPI would peak in July and that the 6.5% year-on-year increase has reached its peak. There are disagreements among expert bodies.
According to Lian Ping, chief economist of the Bank of Communications, the third quarter of this year will become the high point of the annual CPI, but monetary policy will not tighten and will remain stable.
Lian Ping previously stated that the CPI will peak in July and begin to fall from August to September. It will fall to about 4% in December. Today, he still insists on this judgment.
Southwest Securities chief economist Wang Jianhui also said that although July CPI is still higher than market expectations, but the international energy market prices continue to decline, pork prices have gradually stabilized, "August CPI is no new high possibility."
However, Lu political commissar of the Industrial Bank chief economist did not agree with this view. In an interview with the media, he said that in July CPI data there were eight major year-on-year increases. "This situation is rare."
According to the Lu political commissar, the main factor contributing to this situation is the increase in labor costs. "The July CPI may not be the highest point of CPI during the year, and the CPI will peak before October. There is still uncertainty at the specific time."
In the second half of the year, there is a difference in not raising interest rates. Given the stock market crash and the subsequent impact of the US debt crisis, the central bank will not take interest rate increases. â€
- Are economist Xie Guozhong's monetary policy tight or loose in the second half of the year? On the afternoon of the afternoon, a number of experts published their views on microblogging or interviews with the media, focusing on issues such as the trend of monetary policy in the second half of the year, whether to raise interest rates, and whether to raise the interest rate.
Lu political commissar guessed that interest rates will be raised 1-2 times during the year. Yesterday, he wrote on Weibo that the 6.5% year-on-year increase in CPI was exactly the same as predicted in his July 25 report, but the food, non-food, and overall levels were all significantly higher than the normal values ​​for the same period of history, indicating that the inflationary pressure is still high. Maintain 1-2 interest rate increase expectations during the year. However, he also mentioned that no action should be taken before the international financial market is calmed down.
Equally in favor of raising interest rates, Wang Tao, UBS chief China economist. In her view, due to the persistence of imported inflationary pressures, persistently high prices of international commodity prices, and long-term rising labour costs, the domestic inflation expectation remains strong, and China’s high inflation may continue until mid-March next year. "I do not rule out the possibility of raising interest rates by 25 basis points in September."
The economist Xie Guozhong did not approve of this view. “The downgrade of CPI and US credit is not the real reason for the recent stock market crash, but the global economy is facing a high risk of a double bottom. Given the stock market crash and the subsequent impact of the U.S. debt crisis, the impact is unknown. The central bank will not take interest rate increases."
A consensus:
The second half of the year will be the turning point of the CPI. Although scholars are divided about whether or not they reach the top in July, they will be the turning point of the CPI in the second half of the year but reached a consensus.
According to Ba Shusong, deputy director of the Financial Research Institute of the Development Research Center of the State Council, given the drop in global oil prices, weak growth in major economies, and the downward trend in pork prices since the end of July, CPI is expected to show a steady decline, and it is expected to fall back to 4.5 in the fourth quarter. About %, and will continue at this level for some time.
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